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Danny Speck's Fedex St Jude Championship Golf Tips
Viktor Hovland 3pts ew 20/1 (8)
Collin Morikawa 3pts ew 25/1 (7)
Wyndham Clark 2pts ew 35/1 (5)
The regular PGA Tour season is now officially over with the Wyndham Championship concluding on Sunday night whereby Lucas Glover won the event on -20 under par, two shots clear of Ben An and Russell Henley, Henley threw this tournament away by bogeying his last three holes. Frustrating for myself as Henley was my main tip last week. Other talking points at the Wyndham were of course who made it into the playoffs. Justin Thomas missed out on the playoffs by one shot after his attempted chip-in on 18 hit the pin and failed to drop. Other notables who didn’t make the playoffs were world number 30, Shane Lowry and also Adam Scott who had his 16-year playoff streak come to an end on Sunday evening.
The FedEx St Jude Championship starts on Thursday and is the first event of the season ending playoffs with the BMW Championship and the TOUR Championship following on after this. A 70 man field for this event with the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings to continue to the BMW Championship next week. The course this week is TPC Southwind, as it was for last year’s renewal. A 7,243 yard, par 70. A mid-score kind of course due to its par of 70, its length, plenty of water in-play, and small green complexes. It’s not only the course that’s difficult as sweltering high temperatures in Memphis, along with high humidity, traditionally turns this tournament into a grind. We should see a similar winning score to last year’s where Will Zalatoris and Sepp Straka were involved in a playoff at -15. Zalatoris was the eventual winner to land his first PGA Tour win.
Key Stats Analysis
Looking back over last year’s renewal at TPC Southwind we see that driving accuracy was much more important than driving distance, hitting fairways this week seems very important when posting good scores. Strong iron play is also another key stat to have in your favour if you want to be successful this week, Zalatoris was 1st on approach and 1st for tee-to-green with his win last year. Only one player inside the top-12 last year ranked outside the top-21 for T2G. A quick note that you don’t have to have a hot putter here this week, of the first four players last year, only Sepp Straka ranked inside the top-10 when ranking second for SG: Putting.
Viktor Hovland 20/1
I’m taking three from the field of seventy this week, and first up is world number five Viktor Hovland. Viktor has been one of the best players throughout 2023, he finished inside the top-20 in every major championship, including 2nd at the PGA Championship. A few weeks after the PGA, I tipped Hovland to win the Memorial, he won that event in a playoff against Denny McCarthy, that was actually Hov’s first win on US soil. Looking over the stats and over the last 20 rounds, he ranks 4th for strokes-gained: off-the-tee and also sits at 6th for strokes-gained: tee-to-green. I think Viktor can be a lively contender this week at TPC Southwind and can go close to landing his first FedEx Cup playoff event.
Collin Morikawa 25/1
Second on my list this week is Collin Morikawa who’s actually having a poor year by his standards but there are reasons to believe his first win in nearly 21 months is close and I can’t quite believe he’s gone this long without a win after the stellar first few years he had on tour. He came close in July at the Rocket Mortgage Classic when beaten in a playoff by Rickie Fowler. His approach play appears to be back though and ranks 5th on approach among players in this field. As mentioned above, strong iron and approach play appears to be key this week. Driving accuracy is another stat for this week’s test and Collin currently ranks 6th for this over the last 20 rounds. I think Morikawa is trending, not to mention he finished a solid 5th in last year’s renewal too. His approach play we know and love looks to be back and hopefully he can land his sixth PGA Tour win this week.
Wyndham Clark 35/1
The award for most improved player on the PGA Tour this season definitely goes to Wyndham Clark and he’s my third and final pick this week. Clark became a major champion for the first time back in June at the US Open when fending off Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. He’s now up to world number 11 and currently sits 5th in the FedEx Cup standings, quite a remarkable rise from where he was at the start of the year when he entered the American Express in January at 250th in the world rankings. Clark ranks inside the top-10 for driving and T2G over the last 20 rounds, 5th and 8th to be exact. I rate Clark as one of the best each way bets of the week and he had to be included in the staking plan this week.
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