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Danny Speck's 3M Open Golf Tips
1pt ew Adam Hadwin 40/1 (6)
1pt ew JT Poston 50/1 (6)
1pt ew Eric Cole 50/1 (8)
1pt ew Austin Eckroat 55/1 (8)
Brian Harman is a major champion! A winner by six strokes in the 151st Open Championship at Royal Liverpool Golf Club with a score of 13-under. There was a four-way tie for second place which included Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Tom Kim and the ever improving Sepp Straka who in my opinion, has cemented his place in Europe’s Ryder Cup team. Well done to anyone who followed my tips on Twitter last week as I did manage to tip Harman at 100/1 so a great week all in all. I did manage to attend on Sunday for the final round too so it was even better to witness Harman win live. It was a masterclass on the greens from Harman all week, proven by the fact he made 58/59 putts from inside 10 feet.
Onto this week and we’re back over in America, Minnesota to be exact for the 3M Open. We return as ever to TPC Twin Cities, which has been the host course of this event since 2001. TPC Twin Cities is a 7,431 yard par 71 which has increased its yardage by roughly 200 yards since last year’s renewal. The 3M Open is the second-to-last event on the PGA TOUR Regular Season schedule, which means the big focus for everyone in the field will be their spots on the FedExCup standings. Some of the key players in the field who currently sit outside the top-70 in the standings are Justin Thomas (No. 75) who will be needing a good week this week, Justin Suh (No. 76), Cam Davis (No. 77) and also K.H. Lee who sits right on the edge in 70th. Other notables in the field are defending champion Tony Finau, Cameron Young, Sungjae Im, Sepp Straka and Hideki Matsuyama. Obviously the trip from Liverpool to Minnesota is a lengthy one, and most of my focus this week will be on players who did not play over the weekend at The Open and who are coming into this event fresh.
Key Stats Analysis
Looking back over the past four 3M Open renewals to find some trends among the stats and we notice that strokes-gained: approach is certainly a focus this week. Finau, winner of the event last year, ranked third on approach. Cameron Champ was 19th in 2021, Thompson in 2020 ranked fourth and Matt Wolff in 2019 ranked 2nd. Greens in regulation is also a statistic to watch out for this week it seems. Finau ranked 4th for GIR, Champ ranked 23rd, Thompson ranked 3rd and Wolff ranked 6th. Cameron Champ seemed to be the slight outlier here, this is due to the fact he ranked 1st for putting on his way to victory.
Adam Hadwin 40/1
Adam Hadwin was the first name on my shortlist, and I expect he’ll be a popular pick this week. Hadwin has been close to a victory on the PGA Tour this season, most recently at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he was an unfortunate playoff loser to Rickie Fowler, he ranked inside the top-10 for approach and putting that week. Among players in the 3M field, he ranks 9th for approach and 19th for putting over the last 20 rounds, positive and encouraging numbers. Course form at TPC Twin Cities is also solid, Hadwin finished 4th here in 2019, 6th here in 2021 and finished mid-pack in 38th in last year’s renewal. Overall, his approach and putting numbers are impressive and he didn’t play in The Open last week meaning he will be arriving here fresh and looking to land that first victory on the PGA Tour this season.
JT Poston 50/1
Next up is a man who’s returned to a bit of form recently and that’s world number 51, JT Poston. He is coming off the back of a three-start stretch that reads T6 in the John Deere, T6 in the Scottish Open and T41 in The Open last week. He also ranks as the 6th best player over the last 20 rounds among players in this week’s field, including ranking 2nd for strokes-gained: putting. Poston hasn’t finished outside the top-30 in two starts at Twin Cities, including a solid T11 last year. I think he is one of the best each way bets of the week and therefore has to be included in the staking plan.
Eric Cole 50/1
35-year-old Eric Cole has been on the rise ever since he earned his PGA Tour card in 2022. Second place at the Honda, losing in a playoff to Chris Kirk. T5 in Mexico behind Finau and Rahm. T6 in Canada behind Fleetwood, Hatton and eventual winner Nick Taylor. Cole also made the cut in both of his major appearances this year, T39 at the US Open and T15 at the PGA Championship. Cole ranks 7th for approach over the last 20 rounds and it seems like he’s getting closer to that first PGA Tour win. He has gained strokes on approach on all but three events in 2023 and I think Cole is worth a bet at 50/1.
Austin Eckroat 55/1
Last in my portfolio this week is young Austin Eckroat who is a player who’s making a name for himself on the PGA Tour. Not long ago, in just his second major championship appearance, he finished inside the top-10 at the US Open whilst ranking 4th in strokes-gained: tee-to-green. Other notable performances this season have included 5th in Puntacana and 2nd in the Byron Nelson behind Jason Day. Not at all bad for a 24-year-olds first full season on Tour. Eckroat has played at the 3M Open once before and managed to finish in a respectable 16th. All in all, I think Eckroat will go from strength-to-strength and will be a solid player on the PGA Tour over the next decade. He seems to be a solid each way this week.
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