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John Nelson's PGA Championship Golf Tips
Scottie Scheffler 4/1 – 5pts Win
Ludvig Aberg 18/1 – 3pts E/W (8 Places)
Will Zalatoris 40/1 - 1pt E/W (10 Places)
Ben Hun-An 66/1 - 0.5pt E/W (10 Places)
Alex Noren 100/1 - 0.5pt E/W (10 Places)
Dean Burmester 110/1 – 0.5pt EW (10 Places)
Last week we saw Rory Mcllroy take the Wells Fargo for the fourth time, made easier by Xander bottling it again and world number one Scottie Scheffler giving it a miss.
This week sees the start of the second Major of the year, the 106th PGA Championship being played at Valhalla in Kentucky, we have an array of the best players in the world, courtesy of the PGA sending a few invites out to LIV golf players, notably T****r G***h.
COURSE VALHALLA GC LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY
Valhalla GC is a 7,604 par 71 designed by Jack Nicklaus, opened in 1986, which was only birthed with help from co-founder Dwight Gahm who originally owned the farm where the course sits now, and in 1992 the PGA saw the potential and confirmed that the 77th edition in 1996 would be at Valhalla, and boy it lives up to the billing with Mark Brooks winning in a play-off beating Kenny Perry in sudden death. The second time the venue was chosen four years later in 2000, it didn't disappoint with home favourite Tiger Woods bringing the crowds in their thousands, him and Bob May went hammer and tongue in the final round both shooting 31 on the back nine, Tiger went onto win in a three-hole play-off, the last time the PGA hosted here was in 2014, with Rory McIlroy taking the honours beating Phil Mickelson, the only other major competition played here was the 2008 Ryder Cup where the Americans prevailed 16 1/2- 11 1/2, it has also hosted the Senior PGA Championship in (2004,2011).
PAST TEN WINNERS
2023 KOEPKA -9 Inc- form Tulsa 6th, Orlando 1st, Masters T2
2022 THOMAS -5 Inc- form Byron T5, RBC T35, Masters T8
2021 MICKLESON -6 Inc- form 69th Wells, MC, Masters 21st
2020 MORIKAWA -13 Inc- form Jude T20, Mem T48, Workday 1st
2019 KOEPKA -8 Inc- form Byron 4th, Masters T2, WGC Dell T56
2018 KOEPKA -16 Inc- form WGC 5th, RBC MC, Open T39
2017 THOMAS -8 Inc- form WGC T28, MC, MC.
2016 WALKER -14 Inc- form CAN T14, MC, WGC T14
2015 DAY -20 Inc-form WGC T12, RBC 1st, OPEN T4
2014 MClLROY -16 Inc-form WGC 1st, OPEN 1st, SCOTTISH OPEN T14.
COURSE GUIDE
Valhalla was designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1986, it was originally a 7,458 par 72, but now it has been extended to 7,604 par 71, there have been new tee boxes created the 1st is now a par 4 -484 yards, the 8th is a par 3 - 190 yards, the 12th is a par 4- 494 yards, the 14th is now a par 30 254 yards and the 18th is now a par 5-570 yards, this course is a parkland course with a creek which runs through and adjacent to some of the holes, the fairways have been changed to Zeon Zoysiagrass, and the greens are T1 Bentgrass.
Taking a looking at some of the holes, the 13th is a par 4 355 yards, surrounded by the water, there are plenty of dog-legs working both ways with thick rough and trees to contend with, some of the holes can reward some of the longer drivers of the ball, the par 4-375 yards is one of them, in 2008 in the Ryder Cup the longer hitters on the American team saw an opportunity and cut the left corner shortening the hole significantly which gave them a better opportunities, another hole which can reward the brave ones is the par 5- 7th its 597 yards with two possible fairways, going left will shorten the hole by 50 yards, it however has a landing area of 25 yards and has rough and water hazard waiting for you, going right gives you the safer option, although its still tight and lined by bunkers, this course unfortunatly is not all about rewards there are some really tough par4s, notably the 6th which is the hardest hole on the scorecard its 495 yards, Floyds fork devides the fairway so the second shot will be a long iron into the the green with a bunker protecting the left side and run-off areas all around the green, we couldn't finish without speaking about the 18th its a 570 par 5, it was lengthened by 28 yards a large bunker protects the left side of the fairway, with water on the right, most of the players can reach in two, the second shot is to an elevated green with a deep bunker protecting the entire front, the green is a horse shoe with a severe slop so you need to be on the correct portion of the green, still Eagle and birdies to be had on the closing hole which could clinch the Wanamaker Trophy.
STATS VALHALLA 2014
There aint much data to go on, but we do have some stats from the 2014 edition at Valhalla
1st RORY MClLROY OTT 6.19- APP 4.72- BS 10.91- ARG 1.91- SG 5.64- TTG 12.12- TOT 16.56
2nd PHIL MICKELSON OTT 2.23- APP 2.60- BS 4.83- ARG 3.88- PUTT 6.85- SG 10.73- TTG 8.71- TOT 15.56
T3rd RICKIE FOWLER OTT 3.59- APP 2.63- BS 6.22- ARG 3.99- PUTT 4.35- SG 8.33- TTG 10.21- TOT 14.58
T3rd HENRICK STENSON OTT 2.82- APP 1.70- BS 4.57- ARG 0.83- PUTT 9.19- SG 10.03- TTG 5.36- TOT 14.56
T5th JIM FURYK OTT 1.64- APP 4.24- BS 5.87- ARG 3.17- PUTT 3.57-SG 6.68- TTG 9.04- TOT 12.56
T5th RYAN PALMER OTT 1.97- APP 0.16- BS 2.13- ARG 8.04- PUTT 2.39- SG 10.42- TTG 10.17- TOT 12.56
T7th ERNIE ELS OTT 2.96- APP 1.84- BS 4.79- ARG 2.98- PUTT 3.78- SG 6.76- TTG 7.77- TOT 11.56
T7th HUNTER MAHAN OTT 3.19- APP 5.72- BS 8.91- ARG -0.42- PUTT 3.06- SG 2.64- TTG 8.50- TOT 11.56
T7th JIMMY WALKER OTT 2.82- APP 8.41- BS 5.59- ARG 2.52- PUTT 3.44- SG 5.96- TTG 8.11- TOT 11.56
T7th STEVE STRICKER OTT -2.97- APP 7.60- BS 4.63- ARG -2.00- PUTT 8.92- SG 6.93- TTG 2.63- TOT 11.56
T7th MIKKO ILONEN OTT 0.68- APP 0.59- BS 1.26- ARG 3.07- PUTT 7.22- SG 10.29- TTG 4.34- TOT 11.56
T7th VICTOR DUBISSION OTT 6.06- APP 3.17- BS 9.23- ARG 4.54- PUTT -2.21- SG 2.33- TTG 13.77- 11.56
KEY STATS
SG TEE TO GREEN
SG APPROACH
SG BALL STRIKING
DRIVING DISTANCE
SG PROXIMITY 175-200
GOOD RECENT FORM
PAR 4 SCORING
MAJOR FORM
OVERVIEW
After going through many stats there are some standout ones, the form stats from Valhalla 2014 distinctly point to strong SG:TTG, SG:BS, SG:APR and SG:DRIV DIST, given that and the incoming form stats of the last ten winners of the PGA clearly show the same anomaly, I'm in no doubt that that's, where the winner will come from. There is also another angle with good past major form, seven of the last ten winners have a top ten in the majors before the PGA, the others are T21-T29 and Morikawa is the exception as he didn't play a major before the PGA that year.
COURSE CORRELATION
Memorial Tournament (Muirfield Village)
Muirfield is probably the closest fit to Valhallaa, maybe a bit more generous off the tee but has similar features, it also has small bentgrass greens with Kentucky bluegrass and fescue rough.
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER 4/1- 5 PT WIN CORAL
There was only one place to start, with world number one who this year has played some incredible golf and has won his last two including the first major of the year The Masters, he also won The Players Championship, and Arnold Palmer, Scottie has only been out the top ten once this year finishing T17 at the Amex, even with the putting troubles he still managed to come so close to winning other events, I going to run through the stats but you will already know how good they are, last 5 show TTG 66.4- APP 24.86 BS 49.49, the other stats are equally as good with him also gaining on putting in the last 5 tourneys, the only stumbling block with Scheffler is a new dad but seeing his interviews he's mentally well prepared.
LUDVIG ABERG 18/1- 3PTS EW 8 PLS SKY
We all know how much talent this boy has and every week he impresses me more, for someone to T2 at the Masters on their major debut must be special, we Europeans have been waiting for a saviour and boy has he delivered, In 2023 won on both tours winning the Omega European Masters and he won the RSM Classic, Oh not forgetting as a rookie he helped Europe win the Ryder Cup, this year he's yet to get off the mark but he's played some really good golf, he's had 5 top tens including the 2nd at the Masters, he also was unlucky not to win at Pebble beach as the tournament got reduced to 54 holes with him one back second, it seems no matter the course he has the game to challenge it or take it apart, he's not missed a cut and the stats are glowing, his last three read as TTG 20.25- APP 10.78- BG 24.76- OTT 13.92, the only concern we have is he WD from Wells Fargo (knee injury) but he's there and thats a good sign, we have another Europen major winner incoming.
WILLY Z 40/1-1PT EW 10PLS PP
My favourite player if you didn't know, and he's destined to be a major champ, 2022 he lost in a playoff to Justin Thomas in the USPGA, and finished second in the US Open, he also finished T6th in the Masters, unfortunately, he missed most of 2023 due to back injury and has had to change his swing, he's still not hitting the ball at full tilt, but the signs are very encouraging, he's had three top tens and has missed the cut twice, but his stats are on the up with his only not gaining once on SGAPP- SGBS he also has been good TTG and only lost strokes a few times, Will has only won once on the PGA in 2022 at TPC Southwind, he's gone close since but for me is on the right path to a major win, willy is a chance taken but his major form in America a plus, Masters 2nd-T6-T9, US OPEN T6th- T2 PGA T2-T8.
BENNY AN 66/1-0.5PTS EW 10PLS PP
If any player deserves to win this year it's Benny, he's a man on a mission with him recording five top tens and he finished T16 at the Masters, An has been striking it really well, he's also been hitting it well off the tee, he's 21st OTT and 21st TTG gaining 9.11 over the last three rounds his ball striking has been top form with him gaining 14.35 and 9.01 on APP, this course should suit Bennys game and with him being 6th for approaches from 200 yards and he's 2nd on birdie average, also in my key stats is par 4 scoring where An is 26th. Distance won't be an issue Benny is up there with the big boys, only stumbling block can be the putter, but Benny is using the broom which has brought out improvement, so we're hoping for a big push for his first major win.
ALEX NOREN 100/1-0.5PTS EW 10PLS PP
Alex is having a really good year, no missed cuts with two top 10s, three top 20s and four top 30s, he's hitting his irons as good as anyone(not Scottie) the last 5 he's gained 10.14 APP- 17.15 BS he's 51st on approach and 6th in Greens in regulations, his TTG is 26.57 for the last 5 tourneys and 8th TTG this year, all his numbers look good from bogey avoidance 3rd to approaches from 200yards 6th, importantly he's 5th in par 4 scoring and 1st in scrambling, yes Alex is still a maiden but has won 10 times on the DP tour, major form is a bit patchy, but the form he's in I can't see why he doesn't contend.
DEAN BURMESTER 110/1-.5PTS EW 10 PLS PP
We have an interesting contender in Mr Burmester who deflected to LIV and has held his own there, as your aware we have little data to go on but I can tell you this year he won in Miami which is a long course like Valhalla, long driving and long irons into the greens, he also T3 both at Adelaide and Mayakoba, worst he's been is T35, Dean also won twice in 2023 on the DP Tour and 11 professional wins in total. He's 133 in the world now but was as high as 55th but LIV is still not recognised by the OWGR, going through his stats he's struggled with the putter but his last 5 tourneys he's gained 8.14 strokes the other stats read as TTG 20.93-APP 6.89- BS 18.55- ARG 2.76, driving distance will be a plus for Burmester, moving onto his best major form he has T40-T11 at the Open and T59-54th PGA, limited I know, but he's a live contender.
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