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Tom Ford's Masters Golf Tips
Hideki Matsuyama 22/1 – 3pts Win
Brooks Koepka 27/1 – 2pts Win
Will Zalatoris 50/1 - 2pts Win
Shane Lowry 45/1 - 1pt E/W (8 Places)
Cam Young 50/1 - 1pt E/W (8 Places)
Sahith Theegala 50/1 – 1pt EW (8 Places)
Si Woo Kim 75/1 - 1pt E/W (8 Places)
Cam Davis 350/1 - 1pt E/W (8 Places)
Augusta arrives
As we approach the 2024 edition of the Masters, the wait this year for some reason, certainly from a betting angle hasn’t felt as long. We’ve had the weirdest of starts to the golfing calendar, a couple of Scottie wins and an Amateur to add to the mix, Dean Burmester a week before the Masters doesn’t even sound humane, and still no progress on a merger for the greater good.
The greatest week in golf, however, is upon us, and as soon as the TV is switched on today (Monday) the Azaleas will be out and so will Jim Nantz trying to tell us that Tiger can win again. One thing is for sure, though, it's bound to be a collision course of all kinds of great golf, and if Scottie Scheffler lets us, we're gonna find the big winner of the week, lets go!
Your head, not your heart
As I have said for the last two years when writing my preview, this tournament is never won by a random top pro whom the average non-golfing fan hasn't heard of. This tournament is called the Masters for a reason, and it's set up that way for the best of the best to win, the ultimate challenge in golf will be won by a master and it's as simple as that.
And… for that reason, this year, my biggest piece of advice is to follow your head, not your heart. Time and time again, punters get roped into the betting angle based on what they see in the media or on the bookmakers' cards, and it happens to the best of us. The real story is there are only about 10 guys this year who even have a chance of winning the great jacket, and hopefully, I’m going to narrow that down for you here.
If you didn’t already know, as always The Masters; is the only Major to continually be played at the same course every year and is always around the 3rd hardest on Tour every year, only a tough US Open or Open being tougher. 7,545 yards; plenty of danger, and the Bentgrass greens, which run 14 on the Stimpmeter regularly, never change from week to week despite the weather. The greens are some of the quickest you will see and the hardest to read, and that’s before you even navigate getting your ball on the green. You do however, see varying winning scores here, but that tends to come due to the difference in conditions and the impact the weather can make, mainly down to wind.
Talking of wind, we have plenty of it by the looks of the forecast, and I don’t actually expect the Cut line this year to be in the red numbers. It also looks like at this early stage, a few days out, that the late starters on Thursday may have some advantage with delay likely for thunderstorms come Thursday afternoon, look out for all the low scoring to be done at the weekend.
Winners: 2023: Rahm 2022: Scheffler 16/1; 2021: Matsuyama 45/1; 2020: Dustin Johnson 9/1; 2019: Woods 16/1, 2018: Reed 55/1, 2017: Garcia 45/1, 2016: Willett 66/1, 2015: Spieth 12/1, 2014: Watson 28/1, 2013: Scott 28/1, 2012: Watson 55/1, 2011: Schwartzel 90/1.
Main Masters Points
A big focus again, nothing changes, Masters form! You’ve got to have made the cut here, played here a few times and have the true grit to finish a tournament, and that narrows the list of players that can actually win down already. I also tie this in with recent form and, unfortunately, a few guys who, with my heart would steer with I have to leave off my card this week, sad but no Viktor Hovland, who’s been on my shortlist since last April, no form.
Also, on the head and heart piece, as I mentioned above, another huge betting angle of mine when making my card is what I’ve seen on previous Sundays in previous years. Players like Rory, Xander, Cantlay are just not golfers I want anywhere near my thoughts when I’ve watched them capitulate time and time again when the pressure is really on, why waste your money and time when it will always just be excruciating for you to watch them.
Another underrated stat for the week which goes a miss every year by many, is around the green. If you are not consistently showing a strong game around the green here, you are out of the picture. It’s crazy at Augusta how often you find yourself in trouble around the greens, the tight lies, the sloped run-offs, and carefully placed pins, if you aren’t strong in this area, you are already playing catch up. This for me takes outta bunch of players again who will not be in my thoughts.
The next focus I look upon is the distance and in recent times, we’ve seen organisers push tee boxes back as players get longer and longer, and there is a reason for this. No one, has won around Augusta without being in the top 30% in Driving Distance compared to the rest of the field and that’s not going to suddenly change this year. Players like Morikawa, open champ Brian Harman, Tom Kim are just people I cannot back at Augusta and I don’t think that’ll ever change. The main reason for this is how much easier it is to leave yourself an average 150 yards in comparison to 180 and how much of a gain you make on the rest of the field even if you are great with your long irons.
The next couple of important factors and high-weighted stats in the model, every year for that matter, are Approach Strokes Gained and some Birdie or Better percentages. You’ll see this mentioned in many previews, but it really is vital to include in every model at Augusta. In the last decade, you’ve seen winners all be in the top 20 for Approach and all be in the Top 10 for Birdie or Better % across the Par 4’s. Par 4 performance is really interesting because there are some Tee shots on these Par 4’s, holes like 5 and 7 that are so important. Tight treelines provide so much room for an easy error, if you don’t find the fairway on those holes, you're likely to be chipping out, trying to avoid bogey.
Another real aspect that I have brushed off in the past and I can admit I’ve made a mistake is this stat about Distance to Apex and high ball flight. Maybe a couple of decades ago this didn’t matter as much, but if you look at previous winners in recent years, they all could hit the ball really high and could land it soft on these quick hard greens, and I feel this is vital more than ever. I like this stat because it also brings up only a select group of players that can win; and for transparency, the golfers at the top of this stat in this field are; Rory, Young, Woodland, Kityama, Zalatoris.
There are many other factors that have amalgamated my model for the year and you will see those below but as you can see not much changed from previous years but it's enough for you to see how much thought goes into narrowing down the very few select group of players who can actually win this thing.
How I’ve made up the model this week;
SG Approach
Scrambling
Birdie or Better Par 4 %
Par 5 Performace
Driving Distance
Distance to Apex
Greens in Regulation
Around the green
Bogey Avoidance
Event Average
Major Championship Form
Prox. To Hole
Wind Positive
Masters Form
Top 25 players in the model and my thoughts on each:
1 Scottie Scheffler 7/2
One of the shortest odds at the top of the market you will see for many a year, and without question, Scottie has become the closest thing we have seen to Tiger Woods. If Scottie even has an ok week with his putter, once again he will blow away this field at just a canter.
2 Xander Schauffele 16/1
Has the game, shown form again this year but for me at that price he’d have to of won 3 times already this year, and he keeps bottling it every time he is in contention.
3 Jon Rahm 10/1
His numbers for his irons are not that dissimilar from where we were at last year when he went onto win, however watching him now on LIV in the last few months, something is amis and you wouldn't want to bet your money on a 10/1 shot with those worries around.
4 Tony Finau 33/1
Stats suggest he's trending really well, hence his position in this model. I do have serious concerns however when asked to save Par will he really be able to with a bad putting game.
5 Si Woo Kim 80/1
Of all the 80/1 shots, this is the one that stands out, since his debut here in 2017 he’s never missed the cut and is great play for top finishes and each way, interesting.
6 Hideki Matsuyama 20/1
Looks the guy in form out of this whole field, if Scottie opens the door do not be surprised to see Deki pick up another green jacket.
7 Wyndham Clark 25/1
Backed up his Major win with top quality golf in the last few months, there are much worse bets on the board around this number, not sure he’s got enough experience to win.
8 Corey Conners 66/1
Tee to green monster, wouldn’t surprise me if he was inside the top 10.
9 Akshay Bhatia 100/1
Great win last week to get into this, I wouldn't put you off Top Debutant market here.
10 Rory McIlroy 10/1
As I say every year with the hype just his name gets, if he is going to do it it's from the front or right down the back, it wouldn’t be one for the emotional.
11 Brooks Koepka 16/1
We know the animal Brooks can be even if we have no idea where his game is at, he’s very close to my card but something is pushing me away and it’ll be a late call.
12 Jason Day 45/1
Awful price.
13 Justin Thomas 28/1
Game showed flourishes of being back to normal after an awful 2023, won’t be surprised to see him focus on a top10 or top20.
14 Chris Kirk 175/1
Will be here as an outlier because of his short game, the price says it all though.
15 Sam Burns 45/1
Strange things have happened but this would be strange, doesn’t appear to suit him.
16 Cameron Young 45/1
Game in a good place, still can’t get the job done, would it really be around here that he gets his first win, I’m not sure.
17 Lucas Glover 300/1
Appears on all of my models, it's a heart bet not a head, putting awfully again.
18 Bryson DeChambeau 33/1
Not this would be funny, has the game, we know he has the length, the numbers suggest he can go close, why his Masters form doesn’t correlate, I'm not sure again.
19 Adrian Meronk 200/1
Haven’t really seen him since good form in the fall season after missing out on the Ryder Cup, its not the worst top 20 play.
20 Shane Lowry 40/1
Odds are short, but numbers suggest he’s in the best form he has ever been ever coming into a Masters, it would again be very popular, interesting.
21 Matthieu Pavon 150/1
Not the worse play based on his current form.
22 Tommy Fleetwood 40/1
He’ll likely be hanging around like a nasty smell and then won’t get the job done, would love to see it happen though.
23 Russell Henley 66/1
Underrated golfer, probably not winning.
24 Denny McCarthy 110/1
Best putter on tour, but probably not enough though.
25 Sahith Theegala 40/1
Shown good form, shown potential all year, have been slightly put off by the price, but I like it.
A quick mention if you didn’t know it was possible, I will be making a lot of my bets twice this week, with the (Without Scottie Scheffler) market available, I think you can guess why haha.
Well, well here it is, my outright Masters card. As always follow me on Twitter/X fordysgolftips for the rest of my card and plays for the week, as im sure there will be plenty more. I hope the above has given you enough hints and tips to go on when making your own plays and bets. Happy Masters week to you all, enjoy it.
Hideki Matsuyama 22/1 3pts Win
Hideki has struck off his neck and back troubles to win the Genesis, followed by a T12, T6, T7th, and comes into this on red hot. Amazingly his approach figures have barely changed but the rest of the game is properly dialled in, comfortably start the card, lets go Deki.
Brooks Koepka - 27/1 2pts Win
A lot of things was putting me off Brooks, but if out of any of the LIV crowd there was going to be a new Masters champ it's definitely him, has everything in his repertoire to win this after being runner up last year.
Will Zalatoris - 50/1 2pts Win
I didn’t think after the back injury Zala could return to the heights of his game so quickly but boy did he prove me wrong. T2 at Genesis and T4 at Arnold Palmer in two really strong field, back on his favourite putting surface, this guy is a major championship monster.
Shane Lowry – 45/1 1pt E/W (8 Places)
I’ve had Shaner on my card for the last two years at the Masters, not just with my heart but also because he game is so suited to Augusta. Technically is one of the best around the greens and his putting in the last few weeks has been the best for 5 years since he's won the Open. Put that together with a 3rd, 4th and 2 T20’s this year, this could be the most comfortable year I’ve had him on my betting slip.
Cam Young – 50/1 1pt E/W (8 Places)
Keeps getting closer, 3 top 10’s this year and only Rory hits it further than him, so has the length. He is also the best in the field from 175 yards, a good putting week will give him the green jacket, go close Scam.
Sahith Theegala – 50/1 1pt E/W (8 Places)
Another form player, can you see the theme here? 4 top 20’s this year including a win in the fall, nothing can stop the peak and potential of this guy apart from himself. Went close here last year, can only gain a lot from that experience.
Si Woo Kim – 75/1 1pt E/W (8 Places)
If you take out a wet open championship, Si Woo hasn’t lost strokes off the tee since 2022, add that with being the 6th best putter in the field, Si Woo at 75/1 could be the biggest value on the betting board. Don’t be surprised to see Si Woo be a hero this week and bring us home some cash
Cam Davis – 350/1 1pt E/W (8 Places)
Cam Davis has a really sneaky good game for Augusta, he hits huge hit draw, and interestingly this year only Jordan Speith has a better birdie or better % for going to the green, those two bits of research stood out for a golfer at over 300/1.
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