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Tom Ford's The Open Championship Golf Tips
Collin Morikawa 19/1 – 3pts Win
Tommy Fleetwood 28/1 – 2pts Win
Tyrrell Hatton 32/1 - 2pts Win
Tom Kim 35/1 - 1pt E/W (8 Places)
Shane Lowry 40/1 - 1pt E/W (8 Places)
Brooks Koepka 40/1 – 2pt E/W (8 Places)
After coming off a couple of Outright wins; community ones as well at that, we go into a wide open, excuse the pun, eagerly awaited Open Championship. Much like 5 weeks ago, the anticipation of golfers from the PGA Tour and the LIV tour clashing again really has lifted spirits across all our golf-watching communities. Even more important to that with bringing a major to Scotland, not only does it bring the weather elements but also gives the best European players a chance to showcase their opportunities with the the best in world. In 2023, we had local boy Matthew Jordan at Royal Liverpool and in the two previous years, we saw the likes of Adrian Meronk and Aaron Rai display their talent on courses that suited them. It will be at the very least interesting to see some top European talent we haven't heard before, I think performing well this week.
The Venue
Right onto the good stuff, this year we visit Royal Troon which has hosted The Open Championship multiple times, with its first in 1923 and most recently in 2016. It's known for being a tough course that tests even the best golfers in the world, particularly this week with the southwest prevailing wind watch out for some horrendous scores on the back 9, hopefully, we do not get a repeat of two golfers splitting the field as we had with Stenson and Mickelson 8 years ago.
Ebert has performed another Open Championship revamp to this course in recent years much like with Royal Portrush and a not very big 195 yards has been added to the course taking Troon from 7,190 yards to roughly 7,400 yards. 9 new tee boxes have been added and do not be surprised if you see a tee box make a hole play really easy on one day and really difficult the next. Look out for the Par 5 6th, the Par 4 10th and of course the postage stamp, all holes that will be of much talk this week.
Let’s take our traditional dive into building our model…
Unlike most Open Championship venues, Royal Troon brings a daunting aspect stood on the tee box of nearly every hole. Normally we find the longer hitters and the guys around the greens coming to the fore at these links courses as we had this last week at the Scottish Open. As such Troon is much more of a very technical type of course and there is no doubt golfers will be using all their repertoire and all 14 clubs in their bag to get into into the weekend.
With Tee to Green being so important, this normally correlates into Greens in regulation being a huge factor and for me, GIR will be heavily weighted into this week's model. My expectations are players like Conners, English, Noren, Hatton, and Straka are the type of players that will be good bets this week just because of their rates of finding the middle of the green time and time again, this will leave them in good stead of avoiding many mistakes.
More than any other of this year's Majors, I feel we also enter a week where form is more important than ever before. Major Championship form and recent form will be an addition I believe will be vital to success, and I do not anticipate a leaderboard with names who haven't consistently been playing late on a Sunday throughout the year. I will have a very long look again at last year's leaderboard as I do see similar performances from those who made the cut and have brought that performance into this year, so have a look out for that.
Let’s talk about the weather as we cannot seem to mention Golf in the UK without it. Currently, right now wind forecasts are not suggesting an Open Championship with biblical issues, more of a steady breeze throughout the week, this may give us mid-teen winning scores, which is also something to think about. I do however emphasise as I do every year, do not expect someone who doesn't like the low temperatures, if you can think of any Americans who can't handle it, cross them off your list immediately.
Along with Driving Accuracy, some game off the tee so say, your general Tee to green performances and some good putting inside 20ft, the next most important factor will be around the green. The last 5 Open championships have seen scrambling numbers well in the 60%-80% range, if your guy can’t chip, get out of bunkers easily and is not inventive enough, get rid.
Model stats I’ve used for this year's Model.
Driving Accuracy
SG Off the Tee
SG Tee to Green
Putting inside 20ft
Greens in Regulation
Scrambling
Wind positive
Event average
Technical
Par 4 performance
Sand Saves
Major Form
Recent Form
Last years Tournament
This Year's Open Championship Model
1 Scottie Scheffler 9/2
No1 in the world for a reason and still the best player Tee to Green, turns up like he did at the masters and will win
2 Collin Morikawa 16/1
Sneakily best performances of his career if you take away the season he’s won in, his game suits an Open Championship and he is a previous winner at a course not too dissimilar
3 Xander Schauffele 14/1
Two majors in one year for a serial loser would be a shock
4 Jon Rahm 25/1
Comes into this in the worst form of any of the big hitters
5 Rory McIlroy 15/2
Can see it happening but at those odds with his history, no thank you
6 Aaron Rai 80/1
A great play, in and around the top 20 I assume
7 Hideki Matsuyama 45/1
8 Bryson DeChambeau 14/1
Worth more of a watch this week rather than a bet
9 Tommy Fleetwood 22/1
If anyone is going to get their first big win in a major, it is Tommy at the open, Chance
10 Joaquin Niemann 60/1
11 Tony Finau 40/1
This course suits, in great form, will be a popular pick
12 Sebastian Soderberg 225/1
13 Brooks Koepka 40/1
Slowly moving to a price you cannot ignore with his pedigree
14 Louis Oosthuizen 80/1
A great Open winner, and in better form, I worry about the lack of form in this type of field
15 Jordan L Smith 225/1
16 Ludvig Aberg 12/1
The only rookie for me that can win this
17 Tom McKibbin 175/1
18 SiWoo Kim 125/1
19 Adrian Meronk 225/1
20 Shane Lowry 33/1
His win at Royal Portrush will make him very popular this week, watch out
21 Russell Henley 125/1
Green in regulation masterclass, nothing more
22 Cameron Smith 40/1
If he can drive the ball well, there are worse picks
23 Davis Thompson 80/1
Should play well on current form
24 Corey Conners 70/1
Probably another top 20
25 Alexander Noren 80/1
Under the radar with getting in the field only yesterday, chances
Well, well here it is, my outright Open card. As always follow me on Twitter/X @fordysgolftips for the rest of my card and plays for the week, as I'm sure there will be plenty more. I will have some long shots and Parlays coming, I hope the above has given you enough hints and tips to go on when making your own plays and bets.
Collin Morikawa 19/1 3pts Win
In form, the putter is not as important this week and can ball strike the pants off this whole field if he wants to, showed last week he is primed and ready, love his chances.
Tommy Fleetwood - 28/1 2pts Win
As I have said above, Tommy is someone being ridiculed for never really getting over the line, but this is his time. 4th in the field for total driving, 7th in the field for scrambling, and he can putt as well mind.
Tyrell Hatton - 32/1 2pts Win
Won on LIV since his move across in January and that switch has brought out the best in him. His major form continues to be eye-catching and if we hadn’t seen that switch this year I just wonder how low his odds would be for this. A very good links player and a very good driver of the golf ball.
Brooks Koepka - 40/1 2pts EW (8 Places)
Odds too good to ignore, the mantle piece is due another major, no much more I need to add.
Tom Kim – 35/1 1pt E/W (8 Places)
His experience of the Open last year finishing Runner up with a sprained ankle gives him so much potential for this year. Has proven he can go toe to toe with the very best after his showdown with Scottie a few weeks ago and comes into this in really good form.
Shane Lowry – 40/1 1pt E/W (8 Places)
Royal Portrush win by 6 shots proves his class and experience. The last two majors have been top 20’s and this year's course set up with long irons in hand, off-tee complexes and tough bunkering plays right into his hands.
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