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John Nelson's Valero Texas Open Golf Tips
COREY CONNERS 22/1-3PTS EW 8PLS WH
MATTHEW FITZPATRICK 25/1 3PTS EW 8PLS BETFAIR
BILLY HORSCHEL 40/1 1PT EW 8PLS BYL
AUSTIN ECKROAT 80/1 0.5 PTS EW 8 PLS BETFAIR
LEE HODGES 80/1 0.5PTS EW 8PLS BYL
JHONATTAN VEGAS 150/1 0.5PTS EW 8PLS BYL
After last week's Houston Open where Stephen Jager won his maiden title and took down the might of Scheffler, we are back to the familiar surroundings of TPC Antonio, Texas, 18 of the world's top 50 will be competing here, and let's not forget that it's the last chance to qualify for the Masters by winning in Texas, there are a few players who can get in the top 50 but some decent players are going to be disappointed.
COURSE
TPC SAN ANTONIO (OAKS COURSE)
Par 72 -7,438 yards, designed by Greg Norman in 2009, there are three holes with water, the fairways are quite tight with penal Ryegrass & Chewing Fescue rough waiting for the wayward drives, the Greens are Champion Bermuda Grass overseeded with Poa Trivials, Stimp 11ft.
As I stated earlier the Fairways are quite tight with some gnarly rough waiting for you, there are plenty of hazards around the course waiting to destroy your card, there are four Par 5s with three of them over 600+ yards and all of them play over par, there are four Par 3s with the shortest being 173 yards, putting the pressure on the players to hit some decent mid-range irons, there are ten Par 4s ranging from 343-475 yards, most of the holes dogleg off the tee, moving both left and right, the greens are the 10th hardest to hit on the PGA Tour, they are undulating and on a plateau with run-off areas and large jagged edge bunkers making it hard to get up and down, the wind will be a big factor with gusts as big as 30mph so expect it to affect certain players.
PAST TEN WINNERS
2023 CONNERS -15 FRL CONNERS 64
2022 SPAUN -13 FRL KNOX 65
2021 SPIETH -18 FRL VILLEGAS 64
2020 CANCELLED COVID
2019 CONNERS -20 FRL SI WOO 66
2018 LANDRY -17 FRL MURRAY 67
2017 CHAPPELL -12 FRL GRACE 66
2016 C HOFFMAN -12 FRL STEELE 64
2015 WALKER -11 FRL C HOFFMAN 67
2014 BOWDITCH -8 FRL LOUPE 67
KEY STATS
SGTTG
SGAPP
SGPUTT - BERMUDA POA TRIVIALS
SG PROX 150-175
GOOD WIND PLAYER
COREY CONNERS 22/1-3PTS EW 8PLS WH
There is only one place to start, Conners is the Texas master winning here twice and after his recent performances i think he can take it a third time, so far this year Corey hasn't missed a cut, worst he finished was T57 at the Sony, his last two performances have him T18 at the AP and T13 at the players, gaining 10.94 TTG, 12.45 BS and 9.01 on Approach, his stats this year read 10th TTG- 15th OTT- 6th APP- 130th ARG- 153rd PUTT, yes there are issues with the putter but he's won here twice and can putt on this course, he gained 2.54 over the two tourneys, this course suits his game, the two times he's won here he gained 29.38 BS, 29.02 TTG, 22.00 on Approach which is really some insane numbers. Conners can join one of the greats Arnold Palmer in winning this three times.
MATTHEW FITZPATRICK 25/1 3PTS EW 8PLS BETFAIR
Second up is the ever-solid Fitzy, it's been an up-and-down season so far with him posting some solid efforts, Matt is as high as world number 11 after having a solid couple of years, the US Open champ is striking the ball well and this year, he has two top tens and a 5th at the players gaining 8.24 ball striking, and 7.31 on the Bermuda greens, which he is well at home with after winning at the RBC Heritage which correlates nicely with TPC San Antonio, this is the first time playing this course and distance won't be a problem Fitz.
BILLY HORSCHEL 40/1 1PT EW 8PLS BYL
Can't not love this guy, wears his heart on his sleeve, and he is the PGA's biggest fan which in this day and age is unusual, his stance has softened a little towards a compromise on both tours, all he wants is what's best for the PGA Tour and if that means swallowing his pride then so be it, Billy is making his mark again after not hitting the heights the last two years, his last win came at the memorial in 2022, and now he's trending back towards the podium, last four starts he's T7th Houston, T12th Valspar, MC Players, T9th Cognizant, his ball striking at the last four are all 12.46, TTG 18.49, 5.46 APP, with - 2.21 at the players. Billy has had some decent rounds here his record is mc-T11 - mc -T4- 3- mc -T3 - 75th -T74, three top tens is a definite plus here and his stats are steady this year giving him a real shot.
AUSTIN ECKROAT 80/1 0.5 PTS EW 8 PLS BETFAIR
Newbie winner Austin is having the time of his life, he's a PGA Tour winner and loving every moment, only one missed cut since the start of the year and he's just played The Players like he belongs, tied 45 on his first players, he's been striking it well and his ball striking, approach and tee to green have been second to none, his numbers overall read as TTG 17th - APP 21st - ARG 41st - PUTT 114 - TOT DRIV 12th -PROX 150-175 26th, Austin has missed both cuts at Texas but has played well at the correlating RSM finishing T8 last year, I can see this boy winning multiple times on the PGA and will definitely give a good account for himself at TPC Antonio.
LEE HODGES 80/1 0.5PTS EW 8PLS BYL
Lee has been hitting his irons well this season, even though he's struggled and missed a few cuts, he's now turned a corner and is not far away from his second win, he's only had one MC in the last 5 starts with him finishing T26 Valspar, T35 Players, T12 Arnold Palmer, MC Cognizant, T24 Genesis, the putter is his hottest club in the bag, and his driving accuracy is up there, only worry is the TTG, Hodges has played well here with him finishing T6 here in 2023 with him gaining on all spheres apart from OTT, at 80/1 he's worthy of a good EW bet.
JHONATTAN VEGAS 150/1 0.5PTS EW 8PLS BYL
It has been a long road to recovery for Vegas, but the 39 yr old Venezuelan is showing some good signs. In the last four tourneys he's gained 14.96 Ball Striking, 9.79 Approach, 11.97 TTG and 5.17 PUTT, hard to ignore the numbers with the three-time PGA winner playing like his old self, he also has some course form finishing T18 - T30 - 34th - T66, there was a few MC along the way, do I think he's back to his best? Probably not but well worth a place, and who knows after the big winners we've had this year.
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