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John Nelson's DP World Tour Championship Golf Tips
Victor Hovland 1ST RORY 2ND- 5PTS WIN 365
Tyrrell Hatton 14/1-3PTS EW 6PLS PP
Min Woo Lee 20/1 3PTS EW 6 PLS PP
Matt Wallace 50/1-1PT EW 6PLS BYL
Sami Valimaki 80/1-0.5PT EW 6PLS PP
Sebastian Soderberg 150/1-0.5PT EW 6PLS WH
Last week we had a favourite winning in the Nedbank Golf Challenge when American Max Homa won by 4 strokes, not surprising as he was the only shining light in the US Ryder Cup team. We move swiftly onto the much-anticipated Tour Championship final, unfortunately Rory has already won the race to Dubai taking the edge off which would have been a good contest between the world’s number 2 & 3 and 4. Most of this year’s Ryder Cup heroes will be in attendance this week including Rahm, Rory, Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, Hatton, Hovland, Lowry, Straka and Nicolai Hojgaard, there will be some of the world’s best trying their hardest to break that hold.
Course
Earth Course Jumeirah Golf Estates
This is a par 72, length 7,675 yards, designed by Greg Norman in 2009, fairways are Bermuda, rough Bermuda/Rye, greens are TifEagle Bermuda, Stimp 12.6"
Overview
We are at the Earth course which has served this tournament since 2009, the course itself is built on a desert and is a beast of a track, measuring 7,675 yards with two of the par 5s measuring over 620 yards, we also have a tough par-4 measuring nearly 500 yards, there are also some tough par 3s with the 4th measure 245 yards and the 17th is an island green measuring 195 yards, the greens are undulating and large, running 12.6 on the stimp meter which are normally dry and hard.
Key Stats
Looking through the many stats available to us birdies are a must here, most scores range from -14 to -23 with Rory and Westwood finishing with the top score, Rahm in 2019 made 25 birdies over the four days and the same in 2017, Rory in 2015 made 26 birdies, and nearly every winner here have made over 20 birdies.
The most consistent stats are:
SG TTG
SG GIR
SG PUTT
with Scrambling coming in pretty close, the fairways are long and wide so it wouldn’t surprise me the long hitters would flourish here, generally no worse than top 20 in driving distance have come away with the win here, we also have to take GIR into serious consideration, 9 of the past 12 winners have been in the top 10, and 11 of the 13 winners have ranked in the top ten for SG PUTT.
Past Ten Winners
2022 RAHM -20
2021 MORIKAWA -17
2020 FITZPATRICK -15
2019 RAHM -19
2018 WILLETT -18
2017 RAHM -19
2016 FITZPATRICK -17
2015 MCLLROY -21
2014 STENSON -16
2013 STENSON -13
Weather
The weather for Dubai for the four days is sunny with temperatures around the 80f/26c mark, the winds are forecast for around 10-15mph in the afternoons, with a chance of thunderstorms on Friday.
VICTOR HOVLAND 1ST RORY 2ND- 5PTS WIN 365
Where do we start with Victor, the heroic's in the Ryder Cup or Fedex Tour Championships, what a year the smiling assassin has had, his short game has improved leaps and bound, and his last two starts have yielded wins, winning the Fedex Cup and BMW Championship, he’s moved up to 4th in the world and is improving every time he plays, his stats have been off the charts, gaining 6.9 TTG -3.0 OTT- 3.0 APP- 0.8ARG -2.1PUTT in the last 5 comps.
Victor has also played well in all the majors with him T7 Masters, T2nd PGA Championship, T13th Open and 19th at the US Open, I think next year is going to be massive, but for now let’s see him take down Rory on his favourite course.
TYRRELL HATTON 14/1-3PTYS EW 6PLS PP
Hatton must think what do I have to do to win this season, with him having 10 top ten's and only missing two cuts over 23 events, his latest saw him T2nd at the BMW Championship, then a MC at the Irish Open, before that he finished a respectable T9th at the Tour Championship, it's been a year of near misses, stat wise he’s looked good, SGTTG 11th- SG OTT 13th- SGAPR 13th - SGSCR 18TH - SGPUTT 7th, as we know not just stats win a tournament, Tyrrell has a good bond with this course, having finished T2-T16-T8-46-T22-T8-2-T13-T6, in 2022 he finished T2nd with only the third round 72 losing it for him, if he keeps a cool head there’s no reason why he can’t contend this week.
MIN WOO LEE 20/1 3PTS EW 6 PLS PP
It's been a great year for this 25-year-old Australian, he's been solid all season with him winning on the Asian tour in October, and after that he T6th in the Zozo. Lee has performed well with his stats showing he’s on the upward curve. His approach stats are on the minus side however but he’s definitely going in the right direction. The step up to the PGA has been hard but he played well in the USPGA with him T18th and then an excellent T6th at the US Open earlier in the season. He’s now as high as 44th in the world and after T12th here last year and T16th, I expect to see his name high up on that leaderboard come Sunday.
MATT WALLACE 50/1-1PT EW 6PLS BYL
Matt has been plying his trade on the PGA Tour for the last two years and made a good fist of it, he won his first PGA title this year at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Yes, he’s missed a few cuts but who hasn’t? He has put some good numbers together, only a couple of months ago he lost by one shot in the D+D Real Czech Masters only being beaten by an excellent last round of 63 by Todd Clements, Matt's last five comps read T15-T9-T68-T28-T6, going on course history he has T29-T28-T2, as for stats Matt is averaging 305 off the tee with him also recently gaining putting which for me here is important.
SAMI VALIMAKI 80/1-0.5PTS EW 6PLS PP
Sami has turned a corner recently with him winning the Qatar Masters in a play-off against Campillo, he was solid that week with three 67s and a final round of 69. Last week he finished T26th at the Nedbank, it’s been an up-and-down season but he's shown great mental strength to get the win last month. Valimaki has only played here once in 2020 where he gave a good showing with a T5th with four rounds of 69. His game is in a good place and he's not short off the tee and 28th this year in birdies and 33rd in bogey avoidance and at 80/1 he’s worth it.
SEBASTIAN SODERBERG 150/1-0.5PTS EW 6PLS WH
Well, where do we start with the enigma which is Soderberg, you either love him or hate him, and I’m one to put my hands up and say I’ve been burned a few times, you have to look back to July when he last missed a cut, the closest he came to winning was in the Alfred Dunhill Links, where he was four shots behind Fitz with a 62 and then the tournament got cut short, who knows what would have happened, as you know I’m a big believer in good recent form and momentum, so after last week’s T6th and his recent last four of T47-T19-T41-5, I’m taking a chance on the Swede to give a bold showing this week.
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