John Nelson's golf betting tips: The Sentry preview and bets

Morikawa has an impressive record at Kapalua

John Nelson's The Sentry Golf Tips

Collin Morikawa 16/1- 3pts EW 5 places Bet 365

Brian Harman 55/1-1pt EW 5 places Bet 365

Cam Davis 66/1-0.5pt EW 5 places Bet 365

A new golfing year has begun as we turn our attention to the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Last year Jon Rahm won with a score of -27 and if Morikawa hadn't dropped his first bogey of the week on the 15th things might have been a whole lot different.

Course

Kapalua Plantation Course par 73, 7,596

Designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw in 1991 and then renovated in 2020 with every part of the course reworked. Still, this seemed to have no effect on the scoring by the world's best. The greens are TifEagle Bermudagrass, the fairways and rough are Celebration Bermudagrass, with the only defence the course has is the coastal wind. The course boasts of 11 par 4s, 3 par 3s and 4 par 5s with two of them eagle chances and the 14th par 4 is only 301 and easily driveable.

Key Stats To Consider

SG TTG

SG APR

SG SCR

SG PUTT

Good Wind Player

Played Competitive Golf In December

Past Ten Winners

2023 RAHM -27

2022 CAM SMITH -34

2021 ENGLISH -14

2020 THOMAS -14

2019 SCHAUFFELE -23

2018 D JOHNSON -24

2017 THOMAS -22

2016 SPIETH -30

2015 REED -21

2014 Z JOHNSON -19

Weather

The current forecast for Thursday is sunny with a high of 24, Friday is overcast with winds up to 31km/h, Saturday is sunny with winds up to 23km/h and Sunday is sunny with a high of 21 and winds up to 14km/h.

Collin Morikawa 16/1- 3pts EW 5 places Bet 365

After last year's finish, it seems Collin might be getting back to his best. He took down the ZOZO Championship and finished 6th in the Tour Championship, which he was leading after 36 holes and was still joint leader after 54 but a poor last round put an end to his tournament. Before that, he played well at the BMW finishing 26th and ST Jude 13th, his stats have been great but putting is still work in progress.

Collin is at the place where he plays best but still hasn't won, He is on Bermuda which he's very familiar with, his driving and approach play has been spot on, he's had some really good rounds here including a 61 last year and has finished 2nd-5th-7th-7th, this is primed for Morikawa.

Brian Harman 55/1-1pt EW 5 places Bet 365

So there's only one place to start and that is the Open Championship, which Harman won in last year, ask Brian Kirschner he hasn't stopped talking about his bet, respect Brian.

Harman has turned himself from this boring persona of a golfer into one of the shining lights of 2023, up until his win he was playing some great golf with him T2 at the Travelers and T9 at the Rocket and the week before the Open win he was T9 at the Genesis Open which was perfect preparation, he's now up to world number nine and was part of the Ryder Cup team, his game is in a good place at the moment and with a little course knowledge 3rd and 16th he can open with a bang in 2024.

Cam Davis 66/1-0.5pt EW 5 places Bet 365

I've been looking for some angles to win this and Cam definitely fits the bill, historically Australian players have fared well here. Aussies are born to play in the wind and this is a perfect fit for him. Davis is a one-time winner on the PGA Tour but should have more wins especially after the year he's had. Cam has had no less than 8 top tens, and a cracking PGA Championship finishing T4. Davis' game is in top order with his stats from his last 5 appearances reading 5 strokes gained OTT- 1.1 APR- 2.2ARG- 1.4 PUTT, it's only a matter of time before he gets another win and for me, it's coming soon and let's not forget about the Presidents Cup qualifying in which he played in 2022, it will be firmly on his mind, I could see him making this team and going to Canada.

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