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Nedbank Challenge Golf Tips
Lucas Herbert 28/1 - 1.75pt e/w 6 places – various
Adrian Otaegui 33/1 - 1.5pt e/w 8 places – Bet 365
Thriston Lawrence 50/1 - 1pt e/w 6 places – Skybet
Ewen Ferguson 80/1 - 0.75pt e/w 5 places – Unibet
The short break from DP World Tour action is over! We head to South Africa for the Nedbank Golf Challenge. 7,800 yards awaits the players but due to the altitude, it won’t be play as long as that. A limited field event of only 66 of the best DP World Tour players of the year should make for an exciting tournament even if it lacks that truly star quality. The recipe for success here is accurate of the tee, great iron play and a tidy short game, so there’s really nowhere to hide this week.
First up I’m sticking with what I think the lesson of DP World Tour betting over the past few years has been, rate PGA Tour form highly, that’s why the selection goes to Lucas Herbert. The last time Herbert came over to play a DP World Tour event he finished 5th at the Italian Open, and since then has a Top 20 on the PGA tour to his name. While his stats might not jump off the page, I’m hoping the drop in class will pay dividends here and I’m in no doubt he's a better player than others listed at similar prices this week.
Next up we have Adrian Otaegui. Otaegui became the first LIV golf player to win a DP World Tour event when he lapped the field at the Andalucía Masters. I think this course has a similar test in terms of golf game as Valderrama with Westwood and Garcia winning at both venues in the past. I don’t think Otaegui has been respected enough in the market for his Valderrama win so 33/1 is a price I couldn’t pass up.
To round off the card we have 2 golfers who have won twice on the DP World Tour this season. Firstly, Thriston Lawrence, winner of the Joburg Open at altitude in South Africa shows he’s comfortable in these conditions. He also has 3 top 20s at this course in his career. His recent form is also pretty solid with a 6th place finish at Valderrama last time out only 4 weeks ago. Finally, Ewen Ferguson rounds out the card, a favourite for this article and once again he’s drifted into this 70-80/1 range. In a limited-field event, a ball striker as good as Ferguson is clearly mispriced in my opinion. His season-long ranks in key Strokes Gained categories are excellent: 31st Off the Tee, 13th Approach, 24th Tee to Green. With a bigger audience than his Qatar and Northern Ireland victories, this could be a big week for Ferguson with vital Ryder Cup points on the line.
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