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Tom Ford's Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Tips
Ludvig Aberg 23/1 – 2pts Win
Will Zalatoris 42/1 – 2pts Win
Harris English – 45/1 2pts EW (8 Places)
Matthieu Pavon – 1pts ew 80/1 (8 Places)
Adam Scott – 1pt EW 50/1 (8 Places)
Chris Kirk – 55/1 1pt EW (8 Places)
Lucas Glover - 150/1 1pts EW (8 Places)
Ball Striking Masterclass
Austin Eckroat delivered an absolute masterclass in ball striking at PGA National and nothing he could do could go wrong. It pretty much sums up our Monday finish after the PGA tour got it all wrong again on Sunday, with everyone frustrated about how they couldn’t get 30 tee times through a rain-affected Sunday forecast, it's as if the sponsors are holding them to ransom.
Anyway, what we did see from the rest of the field other than Austin was pretty pathetic if you ask me. This tournament could have been anyone’s, it was there for the taking and if someone just stood up and delivered it was very tangible. The conditions on Sunday, and Monday were absolutely perfect, birdies were available on every hole and everyone just seemed to bottle it. Lowry couldn’t find a green, Skinns didn’t have the bottle, Min Woo didn’t have the bottle, what Rory and Scam Young were doing I have no idea, but the chasing pack just couldn’t putt. We had a great T7 from our man Novak but that was unfortunately chopped 10 ways, all in all, it felt very frustrating, so let’s get back on the horse.
Bay Hill time, in the wind?
Bay Hill is a classic, it's been on the rostrum now for 5 decades and this place remains as the pinnacle on the PGA Tour due to its nature in testing a golfers all round game. It stretches around 7,466 yard, so it’s long, it features risk and reward and it also gives those on the side of accuracy as well as distance both an advantage.
To score well here you basically have to be gaining in some way hugely in 2/3 facets of your game. If you are not putting well enough you have to be putting the ball close on approach, if you are not striking the ball well enough you no doubt have to be chipping and putting well. The winner here this week, will without doubt put all of that together across most of the week as a whole. The surfaces are hard and quick even when it's rained. Expect balls bouncing through fairways into thick rough, expect balls falling off greens because it always runs 12 on the stimp.
I also expect this week, the wind to play a huge role on the weekend. I'm not expecting 2022 Players impact but I am expecting those golfers who don’t enjoy adverse conditions to be down the back of the leaderboard rather than up top and thriving. Another week of no bottlejobs allowed I say.
API Winners: 2023: Kitayama 200/1; 2022: Scheffler 16/1; 2021: DeChambeau 12/1; 2020: Hatton 55/1; 2019: Molinari 33/1; 2018: McIlroy 20/1; 2017: Leishman 100/1; 2016: Day 14/1; 2015: Every 300/1; 2014: Every 66/1; 2013: Woods 3/1; 2012: Woods 8/1
This week’s model make up;
So this week, fairways are where I will start, as mentioned above they are notoriously hard and long here and will have run-out areas especially on the dog legs, however that doesn’t mean that they aren’t wide and it definitely benefits the larger hitter. If you can get the ball down the middle it will definitely run on to yardages under 175 yards and of course, if you are in the rough from that yardage it's much easier than 200+. This brings up for me the point around Bay Hill not just always being about Tee to green and this is highlighted with our previous two winners in Scottie and Kitayama winning the past two years without gaining off the tee, something my model will represent.
Bay Hill also has a huge emphasis on Green in reg and Proximity to Hole which is inside the top 10 ranked hardest categories round here on tour, I’m expecting for that reason golfers need to make putts and get down in 2 consistently which is definitely part of my model. With this being said the emphasis on Bermuda putting surfaces will be highlighted here and I’m expecting our winner to be taking Bermuda as their best and most comfortable surface to putt on even if they are not necessarily putting well this season.
The rest of Bay Hill’s resistance is heavily made up of water and bunkers, 84 traps in total and strategically placed water hazards.
Another interesting part of Bay Hill which keeps going under the radar for me is the par 3’s. The par 3’s this week are all over 200 yards and if you are not a good long iron hitter I don’t expect you to be at the top of the leaderboard this week. Not only will those stat leak into the longer par 4’s which hitter over 200+ yard approaches being good but it will also leak into the huge par 5’s and being able to reach them in 2 and more chance of making eagle which is of course a massive advantage every year round here.
All in all, as we seen with Waste Management this year a course that is set up quite long but still has water and bunkers everywhere is not always dependent on Tee to green and this is evident with Nick Taylor’s win there which saw him gain from the fairway and greens but not necessarily from the tee.
How I’ve made up the model this week;
SG Approach
SG Putting
Scrambling
Driving Distance
Bermuda Positive
Bogey Avoidance
Florida Positive
Recent Form
200+ on Approach
Wind Positive
Classical Positive
Par 3 performance
Putts per round
Top 25 players based on that model;
1 Scottie Scheffler 13/2
2 Sam Burns 20/1
3 Xander Schauffele 12/1
4 Collin Morikawa 18/1
5 Justin Thomas 25/1
6 Chris Kirk 60/1
7 Matthieu Pavon 75/1
8 Rory McIlroy 17/2
9 Tom Hoge 90/1
10 Jordan Spieth 20/1
11 Harris English 45/1
12 Kurt Kitayama 80/1
13 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 80/1
14 Will Zalatoris 30/1
15 Adam Scott 45/1
16 Viktor Hovland 12/1
17 Luke List 90/1
18 Jake Knapp 66/1
19 Austin Eckroat 125/1
20 Jason Day 40/1
21 Max Homa 20/1
22 Lucas Glover 150/1
23 Denny McCarthy 90/1
24 Patrick Cantlay 14/1
25 Hideki Matsuyama 45/1
I wish you all the best of luck this week, I hope you can find some value in what is surely going to be a more chalky week with this being such a test. The real golf rises to the surface now and we can really get this season going, feel free to tail my picks below.
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Ludvig Aberg 23/1 – 2pts Win
Ludwig has barely had a perfect start to the season but still lies 16th in the field in the Fedex and that tells the story of where his game could be at with a course that suits him. All facets of his game will be tested here and we know from last year he could blow anyone away when he’s ready, now is the time.
Will Zalatoris 42/1 – 2pts Win
This one pulls at the heartstrings, there is part of me that not sure he is up to speed yet, but what we saw at the Genesis is enough for me to say he can win here. Best ball striker in the field for me on his day, ties that in with a good putting performance and he surely has a chance.
Harris English – 45/1 2pts EW (8 Places)
One of the longest hitters in the field, and one of the best putters in the field, tie the two together and we’ve got a great chance of an in-form player playing to expectations with Harris. Top 10’s at the Genesis and Sony Open and on to a course where he has 3 top 10’s and a runner-up prize last year.
Matthieu Pavon – 1pts ew 50/1 (8 Places)
There isn’t much to say about this pick other than he is probably the most in-form golfer in the whole field, we reload again for this week with odds you cannot sniff at.
Adam Scott – 1pt EW 50/1 (8 Places)
Bermuda surface masterclass, and Florida swing positive, Adam Scott will be chomping at the bit to follow his Waste management performance with a good finish here.
Chris Kirk – 70/1 1pt EW (8 Places)
9th best in the world tee to green this year and he comes into this edition of Bay Hill with no surprises in how well he is performing, he is the best proximity to hole and one of the best chippers in this field, with scramble his way to surely another top 10 minimum.
Lucas Glover - 150/1 1pts EW (8 Places)
This one is simple, I back Lucas every week purely on based how good the odds are. Best in terms of prox to the hole all of last season and that’s enough for me to plot again on Lucas giving us some cash money, that’s baring in mind he makes his tee time, lets go.
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